Psychology Questions





(Photo credit: C.J Sorg)


The psychology Questions & Answers (Q & A) page is a knowledge sharing resource where anybody can ask or answer a question relating to the fascinating world of psychology.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law.

None of the information within psychology Q & A should be considered a substitute for professional psychological, psychiatric or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment.

Affective forecasting (also known as hedonic forecasting, or the hedonic forecasting mechanism ) is the prediction of one's affect ( emotional state) in the future. As a process that influences preferences , decisions , and behavior , affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists , with broad applications.

When errors occur throughout the forecasting process, people are vulnerable to biases. These biases disable people from accurately predicting their future emotions. Errors may arise due to extrinsic factors, such as framing effects , or intrinsic ones, such as cognitive biases or expectation effects . Because accuracy is often measured as the discrepancy between a forecaster's present prediction and the eventual outcome, researchers also study how time affects affective forecasting. [7] For example, the tendency for people to represent distant events differently from close events is captured in the construal level theory . [8]

The finding that people are generally inaccurate affective forecasters has been most obviously incorporated into conceptualizations of happiness and its successful pursuit, [9] [10] as well as decision making across disciplines. [11] [12] Findings in affective forecasts have stimulated philosophical and ethical debates, for example, on how to define welfare. [13] On an applied level, findings have informed various approaches to healthcare policy, [11] tort law, [14] consumer decision making, [15] and measuring utility [3] (see below sections on economics , law , and health ).

In 1972, Robert Rescorla and Allen Wagner presented a mathematical model intended to account for several well-known phenomena of classical conditioning, including the acquisition and extinction of the conditioned response to a simple CS, conditioned inhibition, and phenomena of conditioning to a compound CS (overshadowing and blocking). Here I describe the basic elements of the Rescorla-Wagner model and illustrate its application in several areas.

The basic Rescorla-Wagner formula shows how V changes during each trial. I'll give the formula first and then describe what the various parameters are:

Alpha represents the relative salience of the CS, or roughly speaking, its attention-gettingness. It is a number that can vary between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates that the CS attracts no attention and 1 indicates that it attracts maximum attention. Salience can be manipulated by, for example, making the stimulus more or less intense, or making it vary rapidly as in a warbling tone or flashing light.

Barabási and his team also discovered that regardless of the different distances people travel, the 93 percent predictability remains true both for those who travel far distances on a regular basis and for those who typically stay close to home.

“We tend to assume that it’s much easier to predict the movement of those who travel very little over those who regularly cover thousands of miles,” said Chaoming Song, PhD of the Center for Complex Network Research and lead author of the paper “Yet, we have found that despite our heterogeneity, we are all almost equally predictable.”

The researchers were also surprised to find that the regularity and predictability of individual movement did not differ significantly across demographic categories, including age, gender, language groups, population density, and urban versus rural locations.



Psychology Questions





(Photo credit: C.J Sorg)


The psychology Questions & Answers (Q & A) page is a knowledge sharing resource where anybody can ask or answer a question relating to the fascinating world of psychology.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law.

None of the information within psychology Q & A should be considered a substitute for professional psychological, psychiatric or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment.

Affective forecasting (also known as hedonic forecasting, or the hedonic forecasting mechanism ) is the prediction of one's affect ( emotional state) in the future. As a process that influences preferences , decisions , and behavior , affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists , with broad applications.

When errors occur throughout the forecasting process, people are vulnerable to biases. These biases disable people from accurately predicting their future emotions. Errors may arise due to extrinsic factors, such as framing effects , or intrinsic ones, such as cognitive biases or expectation effects . Because accuracy is often measured as the discrepancy between a forecaster's present prediction and the eventual outcome, researchers also study how time affects affective forecasting. [7] For example, the tendency for people to represent distant events differently from close events is captured in the construal level theory . [8]

The finding that people are generally inaccurate affective forecasters has been most obviously incorporated into conceptualizations of happiness and its successful pursuit, [9] [10] as well as decision making across disciplines. [11] [12] Findings in affective forecasts have stimulated philosophical and ethical debates, for example, on how to define welfare. [13] On an applied level, findings have informed various approaches to healthcare policy, [11] tort law, [14] consumer decision making, [15] and measuring utility [3] (see below sections on economics , law , and health ).

In 1972, Robert Rescorla and Allen Wagner presented a mathematical model intended to account for several well-known phenomena of classical conditioning, including the acquisition and extinction of the conditioned response to a simple CS, conditioned inhibition, and phenomena of conditioning to a compound CS (overshadowing and blocking). Here I describe the basic elements of the Rescorla-Wagner model and illustrate its application in several areas.

The basic Rescorla-Wagner formula shows how V changes during each trial. I'll give the formula first and then describe what the various parameters are:

Alpha represents the relative salience of the CS, or roughly speaking, its attention-gettingness. It is a number that can vary between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates that the CS attracts no attention and 1 indicates that it attracts maximum attention. Salience can be manipulated by, for example, making the stimulus more or less intense, or making it vary rapidly as in a warbling tone or flashing light.

Barabási and his team also discovered that regardless of the different distances people travel, the 93 percent predictability remains true both for those who travel far distances on a regular basis and for those who typically stay close to home.

“We tend to assume that it’s much easier to predict the movement of those who travel very little over those who regularly cover thousands of miles,” said Chaoming Song, PhD of the Center for Complex Network Research and lead author of the paper “Yet, we have found that despite our heterogeneity, we are all almost equally predictable.”

The researchers were also surprised to find that the regularity and predictability of individual movement did not differ significantly across demographic categories, including age, gender, language groups, population density, and urban versus rural locations.

With Google’s dominance in the online search engine market we entered the Age of Free. Indeed, services offered online are nowadays expected to be offered at no cost. Which, of course, does not mean that there is no cost to it, only that the consumer doesn’t pay it. Early attempts financed the services with ads, but we soon saw a move toward making the consumer the product. Today, free and unfree services alike compete for “users” and then make money off the data they collect.

Data has always been used, but what’s new for our time is the very low (or even zero) marginal cost for collecting and analyzing huge amounts of data. The concept of “Big Data” is taking over and is predicted to be “the future” of business.

There’s a problem here, and it is the over-reliance on the Law of Large Numbers in social forecasting. Statistical probabilities for events may mathematically converge to the mean, but is it applicable in the real world? The answer is most definitely yes in the natural sciences. Repeated controlled experiments will weed out erroneous explanations or causes to phenomena, at least assuming we’re good enough at separating and controlling those causes.



Psychology Questions





(Photo credit: C.J Sorg)


The psychology Questions & Answers (Q & A) page is a knowledge sharing resource where anybody can ask or answer a question relating to the fascinating world of psychology.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law.

None of the information within psychology Q & A should be considered a substitute for professional psychological, psychiatric or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment.

Affective forecasting (also known as hedonic forecasting, or the hedonic forecasting mechanism ) is the prediction of one's affect ( emotional state) in the future. As a process that influences preferences , decisions , and behavior , affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists , with broad applications.

When errors occur throughout the forecasting process, people are vulnerable to biases. These biases disable people from accurately predicting their future emotions. Errors may arise due to extrinsic factors, such as framing effects , or intrinsic ones, such as cognitive biases or expectation effects . Because accuracy is often measured as the discrepancy between a forecaster's present prediction and the eventual outcome, researchers also study how time affects affective forecasting. [7] For example, the tendency for people to represent distant events differently from close events is captured in the construal level theory . [8]

The finding that people are generally inaccurate affective forecasters has been most obviously incorporated into conceptualizations of happiness and its successful pursuit, [9] [10] as well as decision making across disciplines. [11] [12] Findings in affective forecasts have stimulated philosophical and ethical debates, for example, on how to define welfare. [13] On an applied level, findings have informed various approaches to healthcare policy, [11] tort law, [14] consumer decision making, [15] and measuring utility [3] (see below sections on economics , law , and health ).

In 1972, Robert Rescorla and Allen Wagner presented a mathematical model intended to account for several well-known phenomena of classical conditioning, including the acquisition and extinction of the conditioned response to a simple CS, conditioned inhibition, and phenomena of conditioning to a compound CS (overshadowing and blocking). Here I describe the basic elements of the Rescorla-Wagner model and illustrate its application in several areas.

The basic Rescorla-Wagner formula shows how V changes during each trial. I'll give the formula first and then describe what the various parameters are:

Alpha represents the relative salience of the CS, or roughly speaking, its attention-gettingness. It is a number that can vary between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates that the CS attracts no attention and 1 indicates that it attracts maximum attention. Salience can be manipulated by, for example, making the stimulus more or less intense, or making it vary rapidly as in a warbling tone or flashing light.



Psychology Questions





(Photo credit: C.J Sorg)


The psychology Questions & Answers (Q & A) page is a knowledge sharing resource where anybody can ask or answer a question relating to the fascinating world of psychology.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law.

None of the information within psychology Q & A should be considered a substitute for professional psychological, psychiatric or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment.

Affective forecasting (also known as hedonic forecasting, or the hedonic forecasting mechanism ) is the prediction of one's affect ( emotional state) in the future. As a process that influences preferences , decisions , and behavior , affective forecasting is studied by both psychologists and economists , with broad applications.

When errors occur throughout the forecasting process, people are vulnerable to biases. These biases disable people from accurately predicting their future emotions. Errors may arise due to extrinsic factors, such as framing effects , or intrinsic ones, such as cognitive biases or expectation effects . Because accuracy is often measured as the discrepancy between a forecaster's present prediction and the eventual outcome, researchers also study how time affects affective forecasting. [7] For example, the tendency for people to represent distant events differently from close events is captured in the construal level theory . [8]

The finding that people are generally inaccurate affective forecasters has been most obviously incorporated into conceptualizations of happiness and its successful pursuit, [9] [10] as well as decision making across disciplines. [11] [12] Findings in affective forecasts have stimulated philosophical and ethical debates, for example, on how to define welfare. [13] On an applied level, findings have informed various approaches to healthcare policy, [11] tort law, [14] consumer decision making, [15] and measuring utility [3] (see below sections on economics , law , and health ).



Psychology Questions





(Photo credit: C.J Sorg)


The psychology Questions & Answers (Q & A) page is a knowledge sharing resource where anybody can ask or answer a question relating to the fascinating world of psychology.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law.

None of the information within psychology Q & A should be considered a substitute for professional psychological, psychiatric or medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment.

Psychologists Still Can t Predict Suicidal Behaviors.


We Can t Predict the Future--And That s. - Psychology Today

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